For Chinese officials, Xi Jinping’s first face-to-faceencounter with Donald Trump in Florida was asuccess, principally because it was not a disaster.
對(duì)中國(guó)官員來(lái)說(shuō)，習(xí)近平與唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在佛羅里達(dá)州海湖莊園(Mar-a-Lago)的首次會(huì)面是成功的——主要是因?yàn)檫@沒變成一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難。
From the perspective of China’s risk-averseCommunist rulers, the summit was always going tobe a high-risk gambit. But with an increasingrealisation in both Washington and Beijing that thecurrent imbalances in their trade and investmentrelationship are not sustainable, meeting Mr Trump on his home turf was a risk Mr Xi had totake. The alternative was a possible all-out trade war between the world’s two largesteconomies just as the Chinese president prepares for a second five-year term with a revampedleadership team. During such “selection years”, economic and social stability is the paramountconcern for the ruling Chinese Communist party.
從厭惡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的中共領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者角度來(lái)看，舉行峰會(huì)始終是一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略。但隨著華盛頓和北京雙方都日益認(rèn)識(shí)到，兩國(guó)間貿(mào)易和投資關(guān)系當(dāng)前的失衡是不可持續(xù)的，于是，到特朗普的地盤與之會(huì)面就成了習(xí)近平不得不冒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如若不然，全球兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間可能爆發(fā)全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，而此時(shí)正值這位中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人改組領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子迎接第二個(gè)五年任期——值此換屆之際，經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定是執(zhí)政黨中共的首要關(guān)切事項(xiàng)。
Like so many other capitals around the world, including Washington, Beijing wants to know if MrTrump is crazy like a fox — or just crazy. Either way, it is an academic distinction. Whetherthe US president ultimately upends the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship byaccident or by design, the damage will be done.
像全球許多國(guó)家的政府——包括華盛頓——一樣，北京方面也想知道特朗普到底是瘋狂加老謀深算，還是只是單純的瘋狂而已。不管怎樣，這只是理論上的差別。無(wú)論這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)最終是出于無(wú)意還是有意顛覆了世界上最重要的雙邊關(guān)系，都將造成傷害。
Mr Xi saw his meeting with Mr Trump as a critical opportunity to argue the case for stabilityin Sino-US relations. The Chinese government’s worst fears, however, seemed to be comingtrue almost as soon as the meeting at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort was confirmed.
在習(xí)近平看來(lái)，與特朗普會(huì)晤將提供一個(gè)關(guān)鍵契機(jī)，他可借此力陳中美關(guān)系有必要保持穩(wěn)定。但看起來(lái)中國(guó)政府最大的擔(dān)憂幾乎在確定此次海湖莊園會(huì)晤時(shí)就已成真。
On March 31, a Chinese vice-foreign minister was scheduled to brief foreign reporters about hisgovernment’s expectations for a positive and constructive meeting between the twopresidents.
3月31日，中國(guó)副外長(zhǎng)鄭澤光按計(jì)劃要舉辦外國(guó)記者吹風(fēng)會(huì)，簡(jiǎn)要介紹中國(guó)政府期待兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)積極的、有建設(shè)性的會(huì)面。
But just hours before Zheng Zeguang did so, Mr Trump tweeted his prediction for a “verydifficult” encounter with Mr Xi over “massive trade deficits and job losses”. Mr Zheng thenspent a good part of his briefing parrying questions about the US president’s tweet.
但就在吹風(fēng)會(huì)召開的幾個(gè)小時(shí)前，特朗普在Twitter上表示由于“大規(guī)模貿(mào)易逆差和就業(yè)流失”，他預(yù)計(jì)與習(xí)近平的會(huì)面將“非常艱難”。鄭澤光在隨后的媒體通報(bào)中大部分時(shí)間都用來(lái)回避有關(guān)美國(guó)總統(tǒng)這條帖子的提問。
Officials in Beijing scrambled to contact trusted American intermediaries. According to peoplefamiliar with the calls, the message was “please ask your president to stop tweeting” about themeeting. “How seriously should we take his tweets?” one bewildered Chinese diplomat askedthe Financial Times. “He’s not like any other leader we have ever dealt with.”
中國(guó)官員趕忙紛紛聯(lián)系可靠的美國(guó)中間人。據(jù)了解這些電話的知情人士表示，電話內(nèi)容都是“請(qǐng)讓你們的總統(tǒng)別再發(fā)布關(guān)于此次會(huì)面的Twitter帖子�！币晃恢袊�(guó)外交官困惑地向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》問道：“我們?cè)撘远嗾J(rèn)真的態(tài)度來(lái)看待他這些帖子？他跟我們打過(guò)交道的所有領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都不像。”
In the end, @realDonaldTrump went easy on his Chinese counterpart. During Mr Xi’s two daysat Mar-a-Lago, he merely tweeted a video showing his granddaughter charming the Chinesepresident with her Mandarin language skills. It initially appeared that young Arabella Kushner’sperformance might be the highlight of a summit otherwise overshadowed by the US missileattack on Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
最終，@realDonaldTrump（特朗普的Twitter賬號(hào)）給中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人留了情面。在習(xí)近平到訪海湖莊園的兩天期間，特朗普只在Twitter上發(fā)布了一段視頻，展示其外孫女用自己的漢語(yǔ)普通話語(yǔ)言能力吸引住了中國(guó)國(guó)家主席。最初看起來(lái)，年幼的阿拉貝拉?庫(kù)什納(Arabella Kushner)的表現(xiàn)可能成為峰會(huì)的亮點(diǎn)，但美國(guó)對(duì)敘利亞巴沙爾?阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權(quán)發(fā)動(dòng)的導(dǎo)彈攻擊卻為峰會(huì)蒙上了陰影。
Mr Xi and Mr Trump did not take questions from the press. They did not even release a blandcommuniqué for the world to parse. But it emerged that the two sides’ had agreed to a rushed100-day negotiation over some of their thorniest trade and investment disputes.
習(xí)近平與特朗普都未接受記者提問，他們甚至連一份供世界剖析的平淡無(wú)奇的公報(bào)都未發(fā)布。但接著就傳出消息，雙方已經(jīng)同意就部分最棘手的貿(mào)易和投資爭(zhēng)議開展100天的倉(cāng)促談判。
It is in this particular arena that the alpha male drama that began in Florida will ultimately playout.
一場(chǎng)在佛羅里達(dá)州拉開帷幕、由男性政治強(qiáng)人主演的大戲最終將在這個(gè)特定的舞臺(tái)上演到終場(chǎng)。
Mr Trump’s Treasury secretary, commerce secretary and incoming trade representative havea unique opportunity to narrow the $347bn trade deficit in goods with its biggest tradingpartner, while also pressing for increased market access in China for US service sectorcompanies.
特朗普的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)、商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)以及即將上任的貿(mào)易代表面對(duì)一個(gè)獨(dú)特機(jī)遇，有望縮小美國(guó)與最大貿(mào)易伙伴之間3470億美元的貨物貿(mào)易逆差，同時(shí)為美國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)企業(yè)爭(zhēng)取擴(kuò)大在華市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入。
Those companies have a substantial surplus in their trade with the world’s second-largesteconomy and would enjoy an even bigger one if they could operate as freely in China asChinese companies do in the US.
此類企業(yè)在服務(wù)貿(mào)易方面對(duì)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體存在巨大順差，如果它們?cè)谥袊?guó)的經(jīng)營(yíng)能夠像中國(guó)企業(yè)在美國(guó)那樣自由，它們還將獲得更大的順差。
If Mr Xi is prepared to pay a high price for stability in Sino-US affairs, says one multinationalexecutive who is keenly awaiting the outcome of the 100-day talks, the lesson will be thatpressing China can work. The world will soon find out whether there is indeed a method in MrTrump’s apparent madness.
一位正在急切等待百日談判結(jié)果的跨國(guó)公司高管表示，如果習(xí)近平準(zhǔn)備好為中美關(guān)系穩(wěn)定付出高昂代價(jià)，那便說(shuō)明對(duì)中國(guó)施壓可以奏效。世界很快將看清，特朗普在瘋狂表象下是否的確存有理性。
